The general election earlier this month saw another record breaking increase in the ethnic diversity of Members of Parliament. Here, Maria Sobolewska looks at what lead to this increased diversity and lays out a path for further progress. The main difference between the 2015 and 2017 elections was how the candidates were selected The Representative […]
Nigeria’s Elections – 2015
With Nigeria due to go to the polls later this month Bala Yusuf Yunusa, of the Brooks World Poverty Institute at The University of Manchester, explores the impact the result may have on Nigeria’s international relations and particularly relations with the UK. Trade between the two nations is worth £8b a year. Bala has previously […]
Polling Observatory #43: Stability returns with race close to dead heat
This is the forty-third in a series of posts that report on the state of the parties as measured by opinion polls. By pooling together all the available polling evidence we can reduce the impact of the random variation each individual survey inevitably produces. Most of the short term advances and setbacks in party polling […]
Polling Observatory 42: Sharp drop in Labour support adds confusion to chaos
This is the forty-second in a series of posts by Dr Robert Ford, Dr Will Jennings, Dr Mark Pickup and Prof Christopher Wlezien that report on the state of the parties in the UK as measured by opinion polls. By pooling together all the available polling evidence, the impact of the random variation that each individual survey inevitably produces can be […]
Polling Observatory 41: Opinion stable for now, but election battle lines are being drawn
This is the forty-first in a series of posts by Dr Robert Ford, Dr Will Jennings, Dr Mark Pickup and Prof Christopher Wlezien that report on the state of the parties in the UK as measured by opinion polls. By pooling together all the available polling evidence, the impact of the random variation that each individual survey inevitably produces can be […]
Polling Observatory 39: Big two recover as UKIP fall back
This is the thirty-nineth in a series of posts by Dr Robert Ford, Dr Will Jennings, Dr Mark Pickup and Prof Christopher Wlezien that report on the state of the parties in the UK as measured by opinion polls. By pooling together all the available polling evidence, the impact of the random variation that each individual survey inevitably produces can […]
The Polling Observatory Forecast 3: Slow decline in Tory prospects, but still too close to call
As explained in the inaugural election forecast, up until May next year the Polling Observatory team will be producing a long term forecast for the 2015 General Election, using methods first applied ahead of the 2010 election (and which are also well-established in the United States). The authors’ method involves trying to make the best […]
Nomination of Mr Juncker – A tentative step forward for European democracy?
David Cameron failed to block Jean Claude Juncker from being nominated by the European Council for the post of European Commission President. Dr. Georgios Papanagnou takes a look at some of the weaknesses in the campaigns by Cameron and the British media. In the end “this time was not so much different” – Jean Claude […]
The Polling Observatory Forecast 2: Still A Dead Heat, Despite Recent Turbulence
As explained in the previous inaugural election forecast last month, up until May next year the Polling Observatory team will be producing a long term forecast for the 2015 General Election, using methods first applied ahead of the 2010 election (and which are also well-established in the United States). The method employed involves trying to make the […]
The time has come – but not for votes at 16
In many ways, Andrew Adonis has eloquently argued the case for the voting age to be lowered to 16. But his assertion that the ‘time has come’ simply doesn’t stand up to scrutiny, argues Prof Andrew Russell. Lord Andrew Adonis’ “Lent Talk” on BBC Radio 4 contained some impressive thinking about young people’s political engagement […]