Remember the Maastricht criteria? No, I didn’t think so. Nor apparently do Britain’s political leaders, based on their manifestos for tackling the UK’s deficit. The Maastricht Criteria were the convergence criteria for European countries that wanted to join the Euro. Agreed in 1992 (including by John Major’s Conservative government) it covered inflation, deficits, debt, exchange […]
Polling Observatory 41: Opinion stable for now, but election battle lines are being drawn
This is the forty-first in a series of posts by Dr Robert Ford, Dr Will Jennings, Dr Mark Pickup and Prof Christopher Wlezien that report on the state of the parties in the UK as measured by opinion polls. By pooling together all the available polling evidence, the impact of the random variation that each individual survey inevitably produces can be […]
Where next for Labour’s schools policy?
With the Labour Party conference in town, Manchester Institute of Education (MIE) invited four leading figures in education to join teachers, academics, teacher educators, parents and others in a public debate on what a future Labour government should do on schools. Prof Ruth Lupton considers some of their key ideas. Panel members were Rt. Hon David […]
The Polling Observatory Forecast 4: Conservative hopes recede slowly
As explained in the inaugural election forecast, up until May next year the Polling Observatory team will be producing a long term forecast for the 2015 General Election, using methods first applied ahead of the 2010 election (and which are also well-established in the United States). The authors’ method involves trying to make the best use of […]
Polling Observatory 40: Treading water as Scotland’s big moment approaches
This is the fortieth in a series of posts by Dr Robert Ford, Dr Will Jennings, Dr Mark Pickup and Prof Christopher Wlezien that report on the state of the parties in the UK as measured by opinion polls. By pooling together all the available polling evidence, the impact of the random variation that each individual survey inevitably produces can […]
The Polling Observatory Forecast 3: Slow decline in Tory prospects, but still too close to call
As explained in the inaugural election forecast, up until May next year the Polling Observatory team will be producing a long term forecast for the 2015 General Election, using methods first applied ahead of the 2010 election (and which are also well-established in the United States). The authors’ method involves trying to make the best […]
The Polling Observatory Forecast 2: Still A Dead Heat, Despite Recent Turbulence
As explained in the previous inaugural election forecast last month, up until May next year the Polling Observatory team will be producing a long term forecast for the 2015 General Election, using methods first applied ahead of the 2010 election (and which are also well-established in the United States). The method employed involves trying to make the […]
Polling Observatory 37: No Westminster polling aftershock from European earthquake
This is the thirty-seventh in a series of posts by Dr Robert Ford, Dr Will Jennings, Dr Mark Pickup and Prof Christopher Wlezien that report on the state of the parties in the UK as measured by opinion polls. By pooling together all the available polling evidence, the impact of the random variation that each individual survey inevitably produces […]
Polling Observatory #36: Farage’s Spring Uprising
This is the thirty-sixth in a series of posts by Dr Robert Ford, Dr Will Jennings and Dr Mark Pickup that report on the state of the parties in the UK as measured by opinion polls. By pooling together all the available polling evidence, the impact of the random variation that each individual survey inevitably produces can be […]
Wrong, simplistic, unimaginative; dismantling Demos’s take on ethnic voting
Upwardly mobile ethnic minority voters are more likely to turn Tory, claims new research by thinktank Demos. But Dr Maria Sobolewska questions the methodology of the study and the validity of the conclusions. Demos has published a report on whether the Conservatives could avoid Romney’s famous death by demographics, and attract enough ethnic minority votes […]