Why do Conservatives try so hard to increase their ethnic diversity while Labour takes minorities for granted? It all depends on who their target voter is. Labour’s target voters thought less of the party when they knew about its ethnic diversity, Conservative’s target voters were the opposite, explains Maria Sobolewska. For political parties the question […]
Will a Greater Manchester Mayor mean even more great stuff happens?
At the Summat New event in Leeds, a group of 20 people from the North, who had never met before, sat in a circle and asked this question: “Are the voices of people living and working in places in the north of England fairly heard in our national conversation?” Here Andrew Wilson answers the question. The […]
Where’s the evidence for IDS’s new ‘smartcard’ scheme for poor?
Iain Duncan Smith has announced the launch of pre-paid cards, loaded with benefit payments to ensure that money will go to feed families and not “self-destructive habits”. It was an initiative that attracted applause from his Conservative party colleagues. But, asks Professor David Hulme, is it really necessary? Hear Prof David Hulme speak at a […]
Polling Observatory 40: Treading water as Scotland’s big moment approaches
This is the fortieth in a series of posts by Dr Robert Ford, Dr Will Jennings, Dr Mark Pickup and Prof Christopher Wlezien that report on the state of the parties in the UK as measured by opinion polls. By pooling together all the available polling evidence, the impact of the random variation that each individual survey inevitably produces can […]
The Polling Observatory Forecast 3: Slow decline in Tory prospects, but still too close to call
As explained in the inaugural election forecast, up until May next year the Polling Observatory team will be producing a long term forecast for the 2015 General Election, using methods first applied ahead of the 2010 election (and which are also well-established in the United States). The authors’ method involves trying to make the best […]
Nomination of Mr Juncker – A tentative step forward for European democracy?
David Cameron failed to block Jean Claude Juncker from being nominated by the European Council for the post of European Commission President. Dr. Georgios Papanagnou takes a look at some of the weaknesses in the campaigns by Cameron and the British media. In the end “this time was not so much different” – Jean Claude […]
The Polling Observatory Forecast 2: Still A Dead Heat, Despite Recent Turbulence
As explained in the previous inaugural election forecast last month, up until May next year the Polling Observatory team will be producing a long term forecast for the 2015 General Election, using methods first applied ahead of the 2010 election (and which are also well-established in the United States). The method employed involves trying to make the […]
Polling Observatory 37: No Westminster polling aftershock from European earthquake
This is the thirty-seventh in a series of posts by Dr Robert Ford, Dr Will Jennings, Dr Mark Pickup and Prof Christopher Wlezien that report on the state of the parties in the UK as measured by opinion polls. By pooling together all the available polling evidence, the impact of the random variation that each individual survey inevitably produces […]
Polling Observatory #35 (March 2014): Politics, Fast and Slow
This is the thirty-fifth in a series of posts that report by Dr Robert Ford, Dr Will Jennings and Dr Mark Pickup on the state of the parties as measured by opinion polls. By pooling together all the available polling evidence the impact of the random variation each individual survey inevitably produces can be reduced. Most of the short […]
Females to the fore in reshuffle – but women’s policy input may remain limited
As expected, David Cameron has boosted the number of women in his Government. But this strategy is problematic, argue Professors Claire Annesley and Francesca Gains, and may not address the lack of women’s policy input in decision making. Earlier this spring Andy Coulson, David Cameron’s former spin doctor, suggested that ‘Sam Cam’ was the Conservatives’ ‘secret […]