general election

The Polling Observatory Forecast 3: Slow decline in Tory prospects, but still too close to call

By Rob Ford, Will Jennings, Mark Pickup and Christopher Wlezien Filed Under: Featured, Polling Observatory Posted: July 17, 2014

As explained in the inaugural election forecast, up until May next year the Polling Observatory team will be producing a long term forecast for the 2015 General Election, using methods first applied ahead of the 2010 election (and which are also well-established in the United States). The authors’ method involves trying to make the best […]

Polling Observatory 38: Polls may bounce, but public opinion usually doesn’t

By Rob Ford, Will Jennings, Mark Pickup and Christopher Wlezien Filed Under: Featured, Polling Observatory Posted: July 9, 2014

This is the thirty-eighth in a series of posts by Dr Robert Ford, Dr Will Jennings, Dr Mark Pickup and Prof Christopher Wlezien that report on the state of the parties in the UK as measured by opinion polls. By pooling together all the available polling evidence, the impact of the random variation that each individual survey inevitably produces can […]

Polling Observatory 37: No Westminster polling aftershock from European earthquake

By Rob Ford, Will Jennings, Mark Pickup and Christopher Wlezien Filed Under: Featured, Polling Observatory Posted: June 10, 2014

This is the thirty-seventh in a series of posts by Dr Robert Ford, Dr Will Jennings, Dr Mark Pickup and Prof Christopher Wlezien that report on the state of the parties in the UK as measured by opinion polls. By pooling together all the available polling evidence, the impact of the random variation that each individual survey inevitably produces […]

Polling Observatory #36: Farage’s Spring Uprising

By Rob Ford, Mark Pickup and Will Jennings Filed Under: Polling Observatory Posted: May 2, 2014

This is the thirty-sixth in a series of posts by Dr Robert Ford, Dr Will Jennings and Dr Mark Pickup that report on the state of the parties in the UK as measured by opinion polls. By pooling together all the available polling evidence, the impact of the random variation that each individual survey inevitably produces can be […]

Wrong, simplistic, unimaginative; dismantling Demos’s take on ethnic voting

By Maria Sobolewska Filed Under: Ethnicity, Featured Posted: April 25, 2014

Upwardly mobile ethnic minority voters are more likely to turn Tory, claims new research by thinktank Demos. But Dr Maria Sobolewska questions the methodology of the study and the validity of the conclusions. Demos has published a report on whether the Conservatives could avoid Romney’s famous death by demographics, and attract enough ethnic minority votes […]

Polling Observatory #34: a voteless recovery so far but still time to turn the tide?

By Rob Ford, Will Jennings and Mark Pickup Filed Under: Polling Observatory Posted: March 19, 2014

This is the thirty-fourth in a series of posts that report on the state of the parties as measured by opinion polls. By pooling together all the available polling evidence we can reduce the impact of the random variation each individual survey inevitably produces. Most of the short term advances and setbacks in party polling fortunes are […]

How and when will the Coalition end?

By Colin Talbot Filed Under: Featured, Whitehall Watch Posted: February 17, 2014

As our Coalition Government moves inexorably towards its end, what are the factors and events that will determine how and when the formal dissolution takes place? Speculation is starting to build, says Prof Colin Talbot, not least because of obvious ‘distancing’ tactics being adopted by both the partners to the Coalition. We have 15 months […]

Polling Observatory 33: public opinion steady through the storms

By Rob Ford, Will Jennings and Mark Pickup Filed Under: Featured, Polling Observatory Posted: February 12, 2014

This is the thirty-second in a series of posts that report on the state of the parties as measured by opinion polls. By pooling together all the available polling evidence we can reduce the impact of the random variation each individual survey inevitably produces. Most of the short term advances and setbacks in party polling fortunes are […]

Polling Observatory 32: running down the clock

By Rob Ford Filed Under: Featured, Polling Observatory Posted: January 21, 2014

This blog post, by Dr Robert Ford, Dr Will Jennings and Dr Mark Pickup is the thirty-second in a series of posts that report on the state of the parties as measured by opinion polls. By pooling together all the available polling evidence we can reduce the impact of the random variation each individual survey inevitably produces. Most […]

Polling Observatory 31: No joy from the polls as festive season approaches

By Rob Ford Filed Under: Featured, Polling Observatory Posted: December 13, 2013

This blog post, by Dr Robert Ford, Dr Will Jennings and Dr Mark Pickup, is the thiry-first in a series that report on the state of the parties as measured by opinion polls. Manchester Policy Blogs will be posting Polling Observatory updates on a regular basis, alongside the well-established Ballots and Bullets blog. A more detailed […]

The Polling Observatory Forecast 3: Slow decline in Tory prospects, but still too close to call

Polling Observatory 38: Polls may bounce, but public opinion usually doesn’t

Polling Observatory 37: No Westminster polling aftershock from European earthquake

Polling Observatory #36: Farage’s Spring Uprising

Polling Observatory #34: a voteless recovery so far but still time to turn the tide?

How and when will the Coalition end?

Polling Observatory 33: public opinion steady through the storms

Polling Observatory 32: running down the clock

Polling Observatory 31: No joy from the polls as festive season approaches

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