Some very useful data compiled by Norman Flynn I thought it was worth sharing:
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The first table shows that the forecast of the deficit reduction has been adjusted to slow the rate at which the deficit is expected to fall. The first Coalition budget, in June 2010, had the deficit compliant with Stability and Growth Pact’s 3% between 2013 and 2014, while the 2012 budget has it going below 3% only in 2015-16, and then only to 2.9%, rather than 2.2%. In comparison with labour’s last budget, in March 2010, the deficit in 2014-15 is projected to be 4.4% compared with labour’s forecast 4.2%. The 2012 budget is less deflationary or austeer, in this sense, than Labour’s last budget.
Table 1 also shows that the debt will continue to grow until 2015-16, and will not reach the Maastricht 60% in the foreseeable future.
The second table shows deficits and debt as % of GDP, using the Eurostat figures for 2011, published in April 2012. They show that the UK deficit is exceeded, as a % of GDP, only by Ireland, Greece and Spain. The debt-GDP ratio of the UK is exceeded by Belgium, Ireland, Greece, Italy, France and Portugal.
Table 1, Deficit and debt, March and June 2010 budgets, 2011 and 2012 Budgets, OBR forecasts,
% of GDP, Maastricht definitions.
| 08-9 | 09-10 | 10-11 | 11-12 | 12-13 | 13-14 | 14-15 | 15-16 | 16-17 | |
| Deficit, March 2010 budget |
6.7 |
12.2 |
11.2 |
8.6 |
6.9 |
5.3 |
4.2 |
||
| Deficit June 2010 budget |
6.8 |
11.3 |
10.1 |
7.6 |
5.6 |
3.6 |
2.2 |
1.2 |
|
| Deficit 2011 Budget |
11.4 |
9.8 |
7.9 |
6.2 |
4.1 |
2.6 |
1.6 |
||
| Deficit 2012 Budget |
9.4 |
8.3 |
5.9 |
6.0 |
4.4 |
2.9 |
1.2 |
||
| Debt, March 2010 budget |
55.5 |
71.4 |
80.5 |
86.0 |
88.7 |
88.7 |
89.2 |
88.7 |
|
| Debt June 2010 budget |
55.8 |
71.2 |
78.9 |
83.6 |
85.5 |
84.9 |
83.1 |
80.4 |
|
| Debt 2011 budget |
71.2 |
78.7 |
84.1 |
87.0 |
87.2 |
85.7 |
83.5 |
||
| Debt, Budget 2012 |
76.4 |
84.0 |
89.0 |
91.9 |
92.7 |
91.4 |
88.6 |
Table 2, European debts and deficits 2011 as % of GDP, Eurostat data
| Deficit | Debt | |
| Euro area | 4.1 | 87.2 |
| EU 27 | 4.5 | 82.5 |
| Belgium | 3.7 | 98.0 |
| Bulgaria | 2.1 | 16.3 |
| Czech rep | 3.1 | 41.2 |
| Denmark | 1.8 | 46.5 |
| Germany | 1.0 | 81.2 |
| Estonia | 1.0 | 6.0 |
| Ireland | 13.1 | 108.2 |
| Greece | 9.1 | 165.3 |
| Spain | 8.5 | 68.5 |
| France | 5.2 | 85.8 |
| Italy | 3.9 | 120.1 |
| Cyprus | 6.3 | 71.6 |
| Latvia | 3.5 | 42.6 |
| Lithuania | 5.5 | 38.5 |
| Luxembourg | 0.6 | 18.2 |
| Hungary | 4.3 | 80.6 |
| Malta | 2.7 | 72.0 |
| Netherlands | 4.7 | 65.2 |
| Austria | 2.6 | 72.2 |
| Poland | 5.1 | 58.3 |
| Portugal | 4.2 | 107.8 |
| Romania | 5.2 | 33.3 |
| Slovenia | 2.3 | 47.6 |
| Slovakia | 4.8 | 43.3 |
| Finland | 0.5 | 48.6 |
| Sweden | 0.3 | 38.4 |
| United Kingdom | 8.3 | 85.7 |
Norman Flynn
31 May 2012
