Unlike the historical HMS Titanic, NHS Titanic cannot be sunk, at least not easily and not in a hurry. That is the realistic view of what will happen now the Health and Social Care Bill becomes an Act.

There are plenty on both the Left and Right of politics who would dispute that. The more outrageous acolytes of neo-liberal policy hope that is precisely what the Act will do (and more Tories believe it secretly). It will privatise a large proportion of the provision of health services, if not their funding, in fairly short order and that is a Good Thing. Their opponents on the Left also believe that is what will happen, although of course think it is a Bad Thing. They are both wrong.

Don’t get me wrong, I do believe the Act will have serious and damaging consequences, just not exactly the ones either proponents or opponents believe.

Firstly, will it lead to large scale privatisation? I don’t believe so for several reasons. The first is practical, to build up a private sector supply-side capable of taking on a majority of the NHS funds which will flow through CCGs would probably take a decade or more. A myth has grown up about the previous era of privatisations, under Thatcher, that it all happened in a short time-frame. It didn’t, it took two parliaments at least. These sort of very large scale changes cannot be done overnight except in very exceptional circumstances (like a war).

Secondly, i still think that even if this was logistically possible, political opposition to such a move would halt it in its tracks long before it got to that stage. That opposition will be stimulated by the almost inevitable scandals, law-suits and crises that will occur as some unscrupulous GPs and private health companies try to grab a slice of the pie.

That is not to say that relatively small, but significant, chunks of NHS provision will not be privatised. In some cases they will probably do a good job, and make modest profits. In others they won’t do a good job and/or they will seek to make outrageous profits. Perhaps more important will be the disorganising effects and growth in ”transaction costs” that will ensue. Both of these will affect privatised and non-privatised parts alike, as even the majority of still-public provision will have to adapt to ridiculous contractual and administrative arrangements associated with greater ”commercialism”.

The reorganisation involved to CCGs will itself be, already is, costly and disruptive. And many of the much need real changes will simply not happen in the ensuing chaos. Those in charge, right across the system, will have their eyes fixed on the ”reforms” when they should be concentrating on making efficiency and effectiveness changes.

With so-called ”protected” funding the health system is actually being squeezed between increasing demand and health specific inflation on the one side and frozen funding on the other. This is set to last for at least another five years, if not longer. Even without change, or with better change than this, NHS services are set to deteriorate. Sensible Tories and Lib-Dems knew that the is a real danger the public will blame their reforms, even when they are not really the cause of lengthening waiting times, poorer services, more scandals and more painful rationing.

NHS Titanic will probably look a bit like a huge liner that ran into and ice-berg and didn’t sink – severely battered and a lot the worse for wear, but not yet sunk. The majority of NHS provision – my guess would be 70-80% at least – will still be a public, but very battered, service.

There are undoubtedly some in the neo-liberal think tank undergrowth who recognise this but that hope this will lead on to public disillusion with the NHS and demands, or at any rate tolerance, of further privatisation. Only time will tell if they are right. I severely doubt it. This Titanic NHS will not be sunk that easily.