Last week, the results of the British Attitudes Survey were published. Here, Professor Rob Ford who authored the survey’s chapter on immigration, looks at what the results mean for attitudes and potential policies around immigration. There has been a sharp increase in the share of Brits who see both the economic and labour market impacts […]
Unpicking the polls
Mike Addelman, in collaboration with the BES team, blogs about work to uncover just why the opinion polls before the 2015 General Election were so wrong. One of the world’s longest-running investigations into political attitudes and voting behaviour, the British Election Study (BES), has been amassing huge quantities of data on every General Election since […]
Polling Observatory #43: Stability returns with race close to dead heat
This is the forty-third in a series of posts that report on the state of the parties as measured by opinion polls. By pooling together all the available polling evidence we can reduce the impact of the random variation each individual survey inevitably produces. Most of the short term advances and setbacks in party polling […]
Polling Observatory 42: Sharp drop in Labour support adds confusion to chaos
This is the forty-second in a series of posts by Dr Robert Ford, Dr Will Jennings, Dr Mark Pickup and Prof Christopher Wlezien that report on the state of the parties in the UK as measured by opinion polls. By pooling together all the available polling evidence, the impact of the random variation that each individual survey inevitably produces can be […]
The Polling Observatory Forecast 5: Conservatives fading away?
As explained in the inaugural election forecast, up until May next year the Polling Observatory team will be producing a long term forecast for the 2015 General Election, using methods first applied ahead of the 2010 election (and which are also well-established in the United States). The authors’ method involves trying to make the best use of […]
Polling Observatory 41: Opinion stable for now, but election battle lines are being drawn
This is the forty-first in a series of posts by Dr Robert Ford, Dr Will Jennings, Dr Mark Pickup and Prof Christopher Wlezien that report on the state of the parties in the UK as measured by opinion polls. By pooling together all the available polling evidence, the impact of the random variation that each individual survey inevitably produces can be […]
Polling Observatory Scottish referendum special: who is ahead, and how close is it?
This is a Scottish independence special of a regular series of posts that reports on the state of support for the parties in Westminster as measured by opinion polls. By pooling together all the available polling evidence the impact of the random variation each individual survey inevitably produces can be reduced. Most of the short […]
The Polling Observatory Forecast 4: Conservative hopes recede slowly
As explained in the inaugural election forecast, up until May next year the Polling Observatory team will be producing a long term forecast for the 2015 General Election, using methods first applied ahead of the 2010 election (and which are also well-established in the United States). The authors’ method involves trying to make the best use of […]
The Polling Observatory Forecast 3: Slow decline in Tory prospects, but still too close to call
As explained in the inaugural election forecast, up until May next year the Polling Observatory team will be producing a long term forecast for the 2015 General Election, using methods first applied ahead of the 2010 election (and which are also well-established in the United States). The authors’ method involves trying to make the best […]
Polling Observatory 38: Polls may bounce, but public opinion usually doesn’t
This is the thirty-eighth in a series of posts by Dr Robert Ford, Dr Will Jennings, Dr Mark Pickup and Prof Christopher Wlezien that report on the state of the parties in the UK as measured by opinion polls. By pooling together all the available polling evidence, the impact of the random variation that each individual survey inevitably produces can […]