Mike Addelman, in collaboration with the BES team, blogs about work to uncover just why the opinion polls before the 2015 General Election were so wrong. One of the world’s longest-running investigations into political attitudes and voting behaviour, the British Election Study (BES), has been amassing huge quantities of data on every General Election since […]
The Polling Observatory Forecast 5: Conservatives fading away?
As explained in the inaugural election forecast, up until May next year the Polling Observatory team will be producing a long term forecast for the 2015 General Election, using methods first applied ahead of the 2010 election (and which are also well-established in the United States). The authors’ method involves trying to make the best use of […]
Polling Observatory 39: Big two recover as UKIP fall back
This is the thirty-nineth in a series of posts by Dr Robert Ford, Dr Will Jennings, Dr Mark Pickup and Prof Christopher Wlezien that report on the state of the parties in the UK as measured by opinion polls. By pooling together all the available polling evidence, the impact of the random variation that each individual survey inevitably produces can […]
Polling Observatory 37: No Westminster polling aftershock from European earthquake
This is the thirty-seventh in a series of posts by Dr Robert Ford, Dr Will Jennings, Dr Mark Pickup and Prof Christopher Wlezien that report on the state of the parties in the UK as measured by opinion polls. By pooling together all the available polling evidence, the impact of the random variation that each individual survey inevitably produces […]
Polling Observatory #34: a voteless recovery so far but still time to turn the tide?
This is the thirty-fourth in a series of posts that report on the state of the parties as measured by opinion polls. By pooling together all the available polling evidence we can reduce the impact of the random variation each individual survey inevitably produces. Most of the short term advances and setbacks in party polling fortunes are […]
Polling Observatory 33: public opinion steady through the storms
This is the thirty-second in a series of posts that report on the state of the parties as measured by opinion polls. By pooling together all the available polling evidence we can reduce the impact of the random variation each individual survey inevitably produces. Most of the short term advances and setbacks in party polling fortunes are […]
Polling Observatory 32: running down the clock
This blog post, by Dr Robert Ford, Dr Will Jennings and Dr Mark Pickup is the thirty-second in a series of posts that report on the state of the parties as measured by opinion polls. By pooling together all the available polling evidence we can reduce the impact of the random variation each individual survey inevitably produces. Most […]
Polling Observatory 31: No joy from the polls as festive season approaches
This blog post, by Dr Robert Ford, Dr Will Jennings and Dr Mark Pickup, is the thiry-first in a series that report on the state of the parties as measured by opinion polls. Manchester Policy Blogs will be posting Polling Observatory updates on a regular basis, alongside the well-established Ballots and Bullets blog. A more detailed […]
Polling Observatory #30: Good news for all the parties… except the Lib Dems
This blog post, by Dr Robert Ford, Dr Will Jennings and Dr Mark Pickup, is the thirtieth in a series of posts that report on the state of the parties as measured by opinion polls. From now onwards, Manchester Policy Blogs will be posting Polling Observatory updates on a regular basis, alongside the well established Ballots […]