As explained in the previous inaugural election forecast last month, up until May next year the Polling Observatory team will be producing a long term forecast for the 2015 General Election, using methods first applied ahead of the 2010 election (and which are also well-established in the United States). The method employed involves trying to make the […]
Polling Observatory 37: No Westminster polling aftershock from European earthquake
This is the thirty-seventh in a series of posts by Dr Robert Ford, Dr Will Jennings, Dr Mark Pickup and Prof Christopher Wlezien that report on the state of the parties in the UK as measured by opinion polls. By pooling together all the available polling evidence, the impact of the random variation that each individual survey inevitably produces […]
Polling Observatory General Election Forecast #1: Parties set for a photo finish
With exactly a year to go until the country goes to the polls, the Polling Observatory team launch their forecast for the outcome of 2015 general election. Starting this month, the Polling Observatory team is joined by a new member: our old friend and colleague, Christopher Wlezien of the University of Texas at Austin, who will […]